Hard to say without measuring it first. What you can do is remove the drive face and check the slope of the inner surface (that the belt rides on) with a straight ruler. A worn drive face will show a curved gap of a millimetre or so between the ruler and the slope. Do the same for the variator as well.
Personally I didn't notice any transmission issues until 78,000km or so. This was when I put a new belt in and the bike still felt funny.
